Drawing the Lines

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As if things weren’t strange enough these days, word now comes of a former KGB analyst who is predicting that the United States will fall apart by 2010.

Igor Panarin is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He has been floating his argument for over a decade, saying that a moral and economic crisis will cause the U.S. to split into four large and two small pieces.

The Northeast/Atlantic Coast states would form their own government and might join the European Union.

California and much of the west would declare independence or might become part of China.

The plains states and midwest would join to become part of Canada, though why Canada would want them is a mystery to me.

Most of the Confederate states, plus Oklahoma and New Mexico, would find itself dominated by Mexico. That wouldn’t break my heart. I often think that we should have let the Confederacy secede, but then I remember slavery and change my mind.

Alaska would go back to Russia and Hawaii to Japan or China.

It’s an interesting map. Go to http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html to see it.

Personally, I think he’s got his lines drawn wrong. If New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Florida were to form a more perfect union, Kentucky, Tennessee, and the Carolinas are sure to want in. I don’t see them going with New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. And what about Missouri? It would be more comfortable with Arkansas than Iowa and the Dakotas.

It’s not clear to me that Virginia and West Virginia would stay with Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. Perhaps they would join with Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan to form the Rust Belt Confederation.

California almost certainly would become a country all by itself. Why should their economy, the seventh largest in the world, support Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona? they would ask. And I don’t see Utah willingly joining with a state that is on the verge of allowing same-sex marriage.

Of course, the whole premise is ridiculous. The United States has its problems, but union is not one of them. I may wonder when Kansas is going to join the 21st century, but I don’t doubt that it will stay in the Union. Even the secessionist party in Alaska cannot get enough members to be a force in state politics – unless you consider the election of Sarah Palin the result of them throwing their support behind her.

But it’s fun to think about. How would you draw the lines?
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To read more about Prof. Panarin’s prediction,